Curious Cat Investing Library: Macro Economic Trends

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Movement of White Collar Jobs from USA to elsewhere

In the 1970's, 1980's and 1990's huge numbers of manufacturing jobs moved from the USA to elsewhere. The 2000's and 2010's may see similar (though likely not quite as extensive) movement of white collar jobs - this trend started in significant numbers in the 1990's. This will likely be one of the 5 most difficult macroeconomic factors facing the USA over the next 20 years.
It will be interesting to see if there is a different reaction from the established political and economic powers than the loss of blue collar jobs produced. The reasons for the move are identical, moving jobs to where they can be done less expensively.

• Down and Out in White-Collar America by Nelson D. Schwartz, Fortune Magazine (9 June 2003).
• Increasing export of white-collar jobs is cause for concern by By Michelle Kessler and Stephanie Armour, USA Today (10 Aug 2003).
• Service jobs leaving U.S. for India by Shashank Bengali, 1 Aug 2003, special to the Kansas City Star.
• Outsourcing: The Word on the Hill by Christopher Kenton, 30 Jun 2003, Business Week. "I received an education -- and I hope lawmakers did, too -- when I explained the reasons for hiring an offshore programmer." See his testimony to Congress on this issue.

Other significant macro economic factors: war and terrorism (destabilization, fear, waste of resources caused by actual war, threat of war and war like activity), inflation (budget deficits, stability of foreign currency markets, interest rates), aging of the population (in the USA, Europe and Japan), coping with pollution, law (how will law on the world wide level effect - patents, copyrights, fraud, medical care, privacy), concentration of wealth (a bad trait, that endangers future prosperity), education, crime, bioengineering, nano technology, health care costs.

Macro Economic Articles

• Articles by Lester Thurow, professor of economics and management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and author of Fortune Favors the Bold: What We Must Do to Build a New and Lasting Global Prosperity and Building Wealth: New Rules for Individuals, Companies and Countries in a Knowledge-Based Economy
• The Asset Economy by Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley, 21 June 2004. Paraphasing from the article: From 1952 to 1985, the ratio of household sector assets to GDP existed in tight range near 3.75. In the early 1990s, it moved up to around 4.25 and by the early 2000s reached 5.25. By the end of 2003 the ratio had fallen to 4.9, well in excess of earlier norms.
  This article examines the implications of the increase in the ratio on the economy due to the stock boom of the 1990s and real estate boom of the 2000s.
• America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out From Under Us - Here's a way to fix the problem — and we need to do it now, by Warren E. Buffett, Fortune, Oct 2003. Unfortunately you can't access most of the article easily.

Health Care - economic factors

• Uninsured can affect entire community, CNN.com, March 2003. "The presence of a large number of uninsured people in a community can affect the availability of medical care for everyone, the Institute of Medicine reported this week."

Investment Articles

• 5 ways to make the big trends work for you by Jim Jubak, MSN Money, 12 Aug 2003. Simple, short article provides advise on investing based on macro economic trends. "The portfolio for the next decade needs to be more hedged, more outward-looking and more flexible. Here are the companies and strategies to do it."

Globalization

• Globalization with Few Discontents? by the Pew Research Center, June 2003.

Long Term Investment Expectations

• Will you have enough to retire?, 26 July 2002 CNNMoney (lowered expectations for long term returns)
• Retirement: Plan B, 23 July 2002 CNNMoney (retirement planning given the decline in the market over the last few years)
• The Investment Implications of Lower Stock Return Prospects by William Reichenstein, Baylor University, October, 2001. "In the past two years, several academic and professional scholars have concluded that long-run real stock returns will be below historical levels."