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Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2009 (advance release - pre-preliminary)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by
labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of
6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, (that is, from the fourth quarter to
the first quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter "advance" estimates are based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The first-quarter
"preliminary" estimates, based on more comprehensive data, will be released on May 29, 2009.
The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions
from exports, private inventory investment, equipment and software, nonresidential structures,
and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a positive contribution from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation
of GDP, decreased.
The slightly smaller decrease in real GDP in the first quarter than in the fourth reflected
an upturn in PCE for durable and nondurable goods and a larger decrease in imports that were
mostly offset by larger decreases in private inventory investment and in nonresidential
structures and a downturn in federal government spending.
Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.36 percentage points from the first-quarter change in real
GDP after subtracting 2.01 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change. Final sales of
computers added 0.05 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting
0.02 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change.
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FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless
otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these
published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.
"Real" estimates are in chained (2000) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
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Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
BEA plans to release the results of the 13th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the
national income and product accounts (NIPAs), as part of the annual revision on July 31, 2009.
More information on the revision is available,
including a link to an article in the March 2009 issue of the Survey of Current Business that
discussed the changes in definitions and presentation that will be implemented in the revision.
An article in the May Survey will describe changes in statistical methods, and the September
Survey will contain an article that describes the results of the revision in detail. The Web
site also contains links to redesigned PCE table stubs; other revised NIPA table stubs and press release stubs will be available in June.
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The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
decreased 1.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.9 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the fourth. The federal pay raise for civilian and military personnel added 0.3 percentage point to the change in the first quarter gross domestic purchases price index.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.3 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 9.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 22.1 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 9.4 percent. Services increased 1.5 percent, the same increase as in the fourth.
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 37.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with a
decrease of 21.7 percent in the fourth. Nonresidential structures decreased 44.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 9.4 percent. Equipment and software decreased 33.8 percent, compared with a decrease of 28.1 percent. Real residential fixed investment decreased 38.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 22.8 percent.
Real exports of goods and services decreased 30.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with a
decrease of 23.6 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services decreased 34.1 percent,
compared with a decrease of 17.5 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 4.0 percent in
the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 7.0 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 6.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.4 percent. Nondefense increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 15.3 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.9 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.0 percent.
The real change in private inventories subtracted 2.79 percentage points from the first-quarter
change in real GDP after subtracting 0.11 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Private
businesses decreased inventories $103.7 billion in the first quarter, following decreases of $25.8 billion in the fourth quarter and $29.6 billion in the third.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- decreased 3.4
percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 6.2 percent in the fourth.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- decreased 7.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 5.9 percent in the fourth.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income decreased $59.9 billion (2.0 percent) in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of $42.9 billion (1.4 percent) in the fourth.
Personal current taxes decreased $193.5 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.7 billion in the fourth.
Disposable personal income increased $133.6 billion (5.1 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $62.6 billion (2.3 percent) in the fourth. Real disposable personal income increased 6.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent.
Personal outlays increased $18.1 billion (0.7 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $260.2 billion (9.5 percent) in the fourth. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $453.0 billion in the first quarter, compared with $337.4 billion in the fourth. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with 3.2 percent in the fourth. Comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- decreased
3.5 percent, or $124.8 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $14,075.5 billion. In the fourth quarter, current-dollar GDP decreased 5.8 percent, or $212.5 billion.